Bitcoin: wave count predicts rise above its margin
- The CLC is in a wave in the third extended cycle, which could finish between $25,500 and $26,400.
- Bitcoin is probably in a fourth wave triangle.
- A decline below $17,569 would reject this scenario.
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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is probably still in an upward momentum, which could push it to new highs.
That said, Bitcoin could first go through a short-term correction before rising.
Bitcoin extension targets $26,000
The one-day chart suggests that the BTC has started a bullish momentum (blank below) after the March 13 low, and is currently in a wave in the third extended cycle. The Bitcoin Evolution wave count for this cycle is shown in blue, and the BTC is currently in the fifth wave.
At first it appeared to be a broad corrective structure. However, the lack of rejections near the maximum peak to date and the subsequent consolidation increases the possibility that it was more of an upward momentum.
The most plausible range for the end of the fifth wave (in blue) is between $25,500 and $26,300. This target is obtained using a combination of fibonacci extensions :
- Fibonacci extension 3.61 of the wave 1 cycle (in white)
- Fibonacci extension 4.61 from wave 1 (in blue)
- Fibonacci extension of waves 1 to 3 (in blue).
BTC Long-Term Count
Further observation of wave 3 reveals a complete sub-wave count (in orange), increasing the possibility that this count is correct.
In addition, sub-wave 5 corresponds exactly to the 0.618 level of sub-wave 1 to 3, which is a very common ratio when sub-wave 3 is extended.
Thus, although wave 3 (in blue) is probably over, it is not yet clear whether the BTC is now in wave 4, or whether it has already completed it.
Triangle figure or new impulse?
A possible short-term count suggests that the BTC has already started its wave 5 (in blue).
The sub-wave count is indicated in orange and shows that the BTC has completed sub-wave 2. It is now on the rise within what is probably sub-wave 3, which appears to be impulsive (in green), supporting this possibility.
That said, there is a problem with this count. Wave 3 lasted more than two months, while in this case wave 4 is about a week long (shown in red). This is a very unusual ratio between an upward movement and a correction.
In any case, a decline below the trough of sub-wave 2, at 17,569, would reject this wave count.
BTC Short-Term CountGraph BTC – TradingView
Trader @Smartcontracter says that the BTC price is moving within a symmetrical triangle, within a fourth wave, and will probably exceed it.